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Livni wins Kadima contest with slim margin of victory
BY: Leslie Susser JTA
With her narrow victory in the Kadima Party primary, Tzipi Livni’s next major task will be assembling a coalition government so she can become prime minister.
Then all she’ll have on her plate is figuring out how to arrest the threat to Israel from Iran, resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a historic peace deal, neutralize the threat on Israel’s northern border from Hezbollah, and run the country.
If she ever gets to it.
The immediate challenge Livni faces is demonstrating — both to the Israeli people and to Kadima’s prospective coalition partners — that her 431-vote margin of victory in the Sept. 17 primary is enough for her to assert her leadership and bring partners into a coalition government.
In the wee hours of Sept. 18, Judge Dan Arbel announced that Livni beat the runner-up in the race, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, by a mere 431 votes — 43.1% to Mofaz’s 42%, according to Israeli media reports.
Early exit polling had given Livni a double-digit margin of victory, as reported initially by JTA. But as the votes were counted late into the night, Livni’s margin dwindled to about 1%.
In the vote at 114 polling stations throughout the country, fewer than 33,000 people, or about 54%of Kadima members, voted for a party leader to succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert — a relatively low turnout by Israeli standards.
Livni’s victory is historic in several respects. She won the first-ever primary held by Kadima, the 3-year-old political party founded by Ariel Sharon. Her election also brings an end to the Olmert era, though he will stay on as caretaker prime minister until a coalition is assembled.
And if she succeeds in cobbling together a coalition, Livni would become Israel’s second female prime minister, following Golda Meir.
Livni has made it clear that she wants to base her new government on the existing coalition — Kadima, Labor, Shas and the Pensioners parties — with the possible addition of other parties such as Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu on the right, Meretz on the left, and the fervently Orthodox Torah Judaism Party.
Livni wants to limit the current transition period, which she sees as a potentially unhealthy period of a two-headed government. Kadima leaders argue that there already is a functioning government and there is no reason it shouldn’t continue its work. They maintain that all the Labor Party asked Kadima to do was change its leader, and now that the party has done that, continuing with the present coalition shouldn’t be a problem.
But Livni’s main coalition partners have no intention of giving her an easy ride. Labor argues that a prime minister effectively elected by only 17,000 or so Israelis has no legitimacy and that the Israeli people as a whole should be allowed to have their say in new elections.
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu agrees. Polls show Likud would win many more than its current share of 12 Knesset seats if new general elections were held, possibly even winning the plurality and catapulting Netanyahu back into the office of prime minister.
Shas is also threatening new elections unless Livni meets its demands for more generous child allowances and a pledge to keep Jerusalem off the negotiating agenda with the Palestinians.
If Livni fails to form a coalition, an election could be held as early as next spring. If she succeeds, she could govern for a year or two before going into a new election with the incumbency advantage.
Then all she’ll have on her plate is figuring out how to arrest the threat to Israel from Iran, resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a historic peace deal, neutralize the threat on Israel’s northern border from Hezbollah, and run the country.
If she ever gets to it.
The immediate challenge Livni faces is demonstrating — both to the Israeli people and to Kadima’s prospective coalition partners — that her 431-vote margin of victory in the Sept. 17 primary is enough for her to assert her leadership and bring partners into a coalition government.
In the wee hours of Sept. 18, Judge Dan Arbel announced that Livni beat the runner-up in the race, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, by a mere 431 votes — 43.1% to Mofaz’s 42%, according to Israeli media reports.
Early exit polling had given Livni a double-digit margin of victory, as reported initially by JTA. But as the votes were counted late into the night, Livni’s margin dwindled to about 1%.
In the vote at 114 polling stations throughout the country, fewer than 33,000 people, or about 54%of Kadima members, voted for a party leader to succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert — a relatively low turnout by Israeli standards.
Livni’s victory is historic in several respects. She won the first-ever primary held by Kadima, the 3-year-old political party founded by Ariel Sharon. Her election also brings an end to the Olmert era, though he will stay on as caretaker prime minister until a coalition is assembled.
And if she succeeds in cobbling together a coalition, Livni would become Israel’s second female prime minister, following Golda Meir.
Livni has made it clear that she wants to base her new government on the existing coalition — Kadima, Labor, Shas and the Pensioners parties — with the possible addition of other parties such as Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu on the right, Meretz on the left, and the fervently Orthodox Torah Judaism Party.
Livni wants to limit the current transition period, which she sees as a potentially unhealthy period of a two-headed government. Kadima leaders argue that there already is a functioning government and there is no reason it shouldn’t continue its work. They maintain that all the Labor Party asked Kadima to do was change its leader, and now that the party has done that, continuing with the present coalition shouldn’t be a problem.
But Livni’s main coalition partners have no intention of giving her an easy ride. Labor argues that a prime minister effectively elected by only 17,000 or so Israelis has no legitimacy and that the Israeli people as a whole should be allowed to have their say in new elections.
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu agrees. Polls show Likud would win many more than its current share of 12 Knesset seats if new general elections were held, possibly even winning the plurality and catapulting Netanyahu back into the office of prime minister.
Shas is also threatening new elections unless Livni meets its demands for more generous child allowances and a pledge to keep Jerusalem off the negotiating agenda with the Palestinians.
If Livni fails to form a coalition, an election could be held as early as next spring. If she succeeds, she could govern for a year or two before going into a new election with the incumbency advantage.
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| Olmert resigns with signature policy initiatives unfinished |
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